ClimateChange

Sample Journal - Climate Change
Climate change is a huge problem and a huge topic. Over the past few months, I have watched countries prepare for the Copenhagen Summit, which was held last December. I am most interested in finding out if a comprehensive international agreement is possible and necessary. Read below to see what happened before and after Copenhagen.

Background Information
In order to understand climate change, I read the following sites. Any other MUNers who would like to suggest a topic related to climate change are invited to use these same sites!


 * UNFCCC || The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is the group of countries who have joined together to solve this problem. The convention is a treaty, and countries who ratify this treaty are agreeing that climate change is a problem and that something must be done to solve this problem. The UNFCCC was first signed in 1992 at the famous Earth Summit. At present, 192 countries have ratified this treaty. Delegates meet once a year for two weeks to discuss the problem of climate change. If you click on the link to the left, you will reach a background guide called "Feeling the Heat." The guide outlines both the problem and the efforts of the international community to solve that problem. ||
 * BBC || The British Broadcasting Corporation website is like a giant news encyclopedia, and I always go there to look for background information. This link takes you to a page that the BBC created right before the Copenhagen Summit. Among the many pages devoted to climate change, the BBC has a brief history of climate change as well as a climate change glossary. ||
 * New Scientist || This popular science magazine also has background information stored in one article called "Instant Expert." There are a lot of links in this article, so I added it to my bookmarks in case I need it later. ||

Summary of the Issue
The levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases have been rising. Combustion of fossil fuels and other human industrial activities are responsible for the increasing levels of carbon dioxide. As the level of greenhouse gases rises, the global average temperature also rises, causing glaciers to melt, sea levels to rise, and a disruption in normal climate functions. Scientists have determined that keeping the CO2 level at or below 350 parts per million (ppm) would avoid the dangerous effects of climate change. However, CO2 levels are already higher than that. Governments are now negotiating using 450 ppm as a level that is achievable and low enough to avoid the most disastrous effects of climate change. In order to achieve this goal, scientists are urging developed nations to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases by 20% below 1990 levels by the year 2020. 1990 is used as the base year for talking about reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The CO2 level in that year was approximately 355 ppm.

Global average temperatures are now 0.8 degrees Celius above pre-industrial levels. There is a lag between build-up of greenhouse gases and temperature rise, so another 0.6 degrees Celsius rise is unavoidable based on current greenhouse gas levels. Scientists predict that global average temperatures will be 2.0 to 2.4 degrees above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100. Sea levels will be 1 meter above current levels by 2100. The above facts were mentioned by John Holdren, President Obama's science adviser, in an August 3 interview by the New Scientist magazine. Unfortunately, the full article is only available to subscribers.

For over 30 years, scientists have been studying this problem closely. In fact, even during the Industrial Revolution of the 1800s, a few scientists hypothesized that increased combustion of fossil fuels could have an effect on the climate. In 1987, the United Nations recognized the work of scientists by forming the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC. This organization consists of scientists from around the world. They review the most up-to-date scientific information and publish "Assessment Reports" to describe what they have found. In 2007, the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore.

Collected Journal Entries
November 17, 2009 I just read an article in Chemical and Engineering News (C&EN). The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that $10.5 trillion will need to be spent by 2030 to keep CO2 levels at 450 ppm and changes in global average temperatures below 2 Celcius. The expenditures would be for low-carbon technologies and energy-efficiency efforts. These data are contained in the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook report. The IEA also estimates that global energy bills will be lowered by $8.6 trillion as a result of this spending.

Unfortunately, only subscribers like me can access the C&EN article mentioned above. But I will find and post the link to the IEA's World Energy Outlook report.

November 24, 2009 As the Copenhagen talks near, there is a lot of talk about what to expect from the meeting. Most of the articles I have read, like this one, suggest that there will not be a ground-breaking deal forged at the conference. The United States and China are seen as the biggest players in the debate. Today, a White House official said that the U.S. will announce targets for the reduction of CO2 emissions. The target will be similar to the reduction that is written into a bill being considered by the United States Senate. The Senate was not able to reach a final agreement and has postponed the vote on this bill until 2010. Therefore, the U.S. does not yet have a law officially stating its target for reductions. The reduction begin proposed in the bill and by the White House official are 17-20% below 2005 levels. This amounts to only a few percent below 1990 levels, which are the worldwide benchmark used in negotiations.

Another question that remains unanswered is whether President Obama will attend the Copenhagen talks. The White House official suggested that Mr. Obama will attend the talks if his presence would help the countries reach an agreement. So far, sixty heads of state have said they will attend the talks. President Hu Jintao of China has also not committed to attending the Copenhagen summit.

November 26, 2009 According to a BBC article, the White House has announced that the United States will commit to a 17% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (below 2005 levels) by the year 2020. This is the first stage of planned reductions, with final stages ultimately reaching 85% cuts by 2050. Furthermore, President Obama will attend the Copenhagen Summit after going to Sweden to receive his Noble Peace Prize. The President will not be at the summit, however, during the crucial final days, when agreements are made.

March 17, 2010 After Copenhagen disappointed many, a variety of views have emerged. Michael Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations(CFR), in Washington DC, wrote a detailed argument why the UN process may not be the best way to solve the issue of climate change.

By the way, for people who are really serious about climate change, here is a list of reading material recommended by CFR.

March 27, 2010 An interesting news item from the United Nations announced the launch of a global greenhouse gases emissions calculator. Using this tool, cities can determine their greenhouse gas emissions for a certain period of time or in an certain sector, like transportation or energy. The announcement came at the World Urban Forum in Rio de Janeiro. Three different UN organizations worked together to create this system for cities: the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the UN Human Settlements Programme (UNHABITAT), and the World Bank.

April 20, 2010 The process started under the FCCC continues. At the [|first post-Copenhagen meeting in Bonn], representatives from all the countries in the convention met in Bonn to discuss how to reach an agreement. Basically, the countries are in two camps. Many of those who signed the Copenhagen Accord want to use it as the first step towards a common solution. On the other hand, many developing countries express resentment at the way the Copenhagen Accord was crafted (by a handful of countries led by the US) and want to continue working towards a more democratic agreement. The representatives decided to meet twice more this year before the COP-16 meeting in Cancun, Mexico at the end of the year. Yves de Boer, the outgoing head of the UN FCCC, says that this will not give negotiators enough time to work out a deal this year.

An interesting alternative climate meeting is taking place in Bolivia. Organized by the country's president, Evo Morales, this meeting brings together people from developing countries, activists, scientists, and others. The conference is intended mainly to give a voice to indigenous people and poor people in developing countries. The event will also mark April 22 as Mother Earth Day.

April 22, 2010 Earth Day! One of my favorite research sites belongs to the Council on Foreign Relations, a non-governmental organization in the United States which studies international relations and recommends policies that the United States government should follow. One section of their website is called the Global Governance Monitor. Here you can find four different background papers on topics including climate change, nonproliferation, oceans, or global finance. A quick look at the timeline and map section of the paper on climate change will give you a quick education on this massive issue. If you want to go deeper, you can read the issue brief, which is like a small book. I thought the presentation of the Copenhagen Accord was a little misleading, however. The Copenhagen Accord was drafted by only a few countries - led by the United States - and in the last hours of the conference. Many delegates complained that all of their work had been ignored in favor of this document from the United States.